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This paper examines methods for structural interpretation of vector autoregressions when the identifying information is regarded as imperfect or incomplete. We suggest that a Bayesian approach offers a unifying theme for guiding inference in such settings. Among other advantages, the unified approach solves a problem with calculating elasticities that appears not to have been recognized by earlier researchers.
We also call attention to some computational concerns of which researchers who approach this problem using other methods should be aware. Measuring the Credit Gap , coauthored with Daniel Leff. We revisit the analysis by Drehmann and Yetman and conclude that measuring the credit gap based on the 5-year growth rate of the credit-to-GDP ratio produces a more reliable and robust predictor of financial crises than does the Hodrick-Prescott filtered series.
We also conclude that estimating the credit gap based on the forecast error of a 5-year-ahead regression can be even more useful, provided a sufficiently long sample is available to estimate coefficients of the regression. A recent paper by Kilian and Zhou mischaracterizes our paper in American Economic Review and much of the related literature. They misstate our contribution to the literature on identification, mischaracterize the role of prior information about supply elasticity in our analysis, inaccurately describe the relation between structural elasticities and the impacts of shocks, and mischaracterize the literature on supply elasticity.
Our purpose in this paper is to set the record straight. Download data and code to replicate. The underlying data from which the U. This paper catalogs these inconsistencies and proposes a unified reconciliation. We find that the usual statistics understate the unemployment rate and the labor-force participation rate by about two percentage points on average and that the bias in the latter has increased over time.
Human-Computer Interaction Symposium
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It would be the first time two hurricanes appear in the Gulf of Mexico simultaneously, according to records dating to at least , said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. A hurricane watch was issued for the New Orleans metro area, which Hurricane Katrina pummeled in August The projected tracks from the U. National Hurricane Center late Saturday pointed to both storms being together in the Gulf on Monday, with Marco hitting Louisiana’s coast around midday and Laura making landfall in the same general area Wednesday.
But there was still much uncertainty surrounding the forecasts for the two storms. Laura was centered about 25 miles 40 kilometers southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, late Saturday, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph 85 kph. It was moving west-northwest at 16 mph 26 kph. Crews armed with megaphones in the Dominican capital of Santo Domingo had urged dozens of residents in flood-prone areas to evacuate before Laura’s heavy rains hit.
The storm left more than , people without water in the Dominican Republic on Saturday night, while earlier it snapped trees and knocked out power to more than , customers in neighboring Puerto Rico. It was also whipping at Haiti, which shares Hispaniola with the Dominican Republic, and forecast to move over Cuba on Sunday. Officials in the Florida Keys, which Laura might pass over on its route into the Gulf, declared a local state of emergency and issued a mandatory evacuation order for anyone living on boats, in mobile homes and in campers.
Tourists staying in hotels were warned to be aware of hazardous weather conditions and consider changing their plans starting Sunday.
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This summary has been prepared by the Secretariat under its own responsibility. The summary is for general information only and is not intended to affect the rights and obligations of Members. The summary below was up-to-date at. On 21 March , Antigua and Barbuda requested consultations with the US regarding measures applied by central, regional and local authorities in the US which affect the cross-border supply of gambling and betting services.
Antigua and Barbuda considered that the cumulative impact of the US measures is to prevent the supply of gambling and betting services from another WTO Member to the United States on a cross-border basis.
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